Ivanhoe withdraws Kamoa-Kakula guidance as shares plunge 16%

Ivanhoe Mines suffered its worst single-day share price fall in more than a decade after withdrawing production guidance at its Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as seismic disturbances forced the renewed suspension of underground work.

The company said on 26 May that ongoing seismic events had forced it to halt certain underground activities at the Kakula section, and that it was consequently reassessing its annual copper production estimate of 520,000 to 580,000 tonnes and postponing the timeline for bringing its new smelter online. Shares fell 16% in Toronto trading, the company's worst day since April 2013.

Rising water, rising uncertainty

Underground activities at Kakula were suspended on Sunday 18 May after continued seismic events that had already caused a work stoppage the previous week. Management said it was working to boost water-pumping capacity to manage rising groundwater levels underground. Kamoa-Kakula is a joint venture between Ivanhoe, China's Zijin Mining Group and Citic Metal, with the Congolese government and Crystal River Global also holding stakes.

A mine too important to ignore

The scale of the reaction reflected how central Kamoa-Kakula had become to global copper supply expectations. The complex had been on track to become the world's third-largest copper source in 2025, and its abrupt loss of visibility over near-term output rattled a market already sensitive to supply disruptions elsewhere. For Ivanhoe, the withdrawal of guidance it had reaffirmed only weeks earlier — on the back of a record first quarter — represented an unusually sharp reversal for a management team that had built its reputation on delivering ambitious projects broadly on schedule.

The company's initial hope of a swift resolution proved optimistic. What began as a guidance withdrawal pending further assessment would, within three weeks, harden into a formal 28% cut to full-year output, as engineers concluded that flooding in the mine's eastern section was more extensive than first believed and would take months, not weeks, to remedy. It would mark the start of an 18-month rebuilding effort that stretched well into 2026.

Sources

• Miningmx: Ivanhoe shares fall as pulls Kamoa production guidance, 27 May 2025

Photo: Malachite copper ore from the Democratic Republic of Congo's copperbelt. Kritzolina, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.