Copper surges to a fresh record on the LME as tariff fears drain supply

Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange touched a fresh all-time high, trading as high as $14,635 a tonne intraday on 8 September 2026, taking the metal's year-to-date gain to around 17%. The rally was driven principally by expectations that the Trump administration would expand its existing 50% Section 232 tariff on semi-finished copper to cover refined cathode, a decision the Commerce Department had been due to make by 30 June but had not yet delivered, leaving the market in prolonged uncertainty.

That uncertainty had a very physical effect: traders shipped large volumes of refined copper into the United States to get ahead of any tariff decision, draining stocks from London Metal Exchange warehouses and other markets outside the US and tightening the metal's availability globally even as headline inventories elsewhere looked adequate.

The Democratic Republic of Congo's role in the squeeze

The trade distortion compounded a genuine supply problem: global copper mine production fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026, with output declining sharply in several major producing countries, including Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, one of the few instances in 2026 in which an African production shortfall was cited as a direct contributor to a global commodity price record, rather than merely a consequence of one.

Demand still looking further ahead

Beyond the immediate tariff and supply dynamics, the rally was underpinned by longer-term demand expectations tied to electricity grid upgrades, AI data centre construction and continued electric vehicle adoption, all of which analysts expect to keep pulling on copper supply even after the current tariff uncertainty is eventually resolved.

Traders in Lusaka and Kinshasa said the price move had already begun feeding into stronger export receipts for both Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, even as producers in both countries watched Washington's still-undecided tariff process closely for any sign of how the rally might eventually unwind.

Analysts said the rally, however welcome for African export earnings in the near term, carried a longer-term risk: a sustained period of tariff-driven trade distortion could ultimately depress global demand growth if it pushed up costs for manufacturers reliant on copper-intensive components.

Sources

• Yahoo Finance: Copper Reaches New Highs on U.S. Tariff Fears, Supply Challenges, 08 Sept 2026