Japan overtakes rivals as China pulls back from SA ferrochrome

South Africa's exports of high-carbon ferrochrome fell 20.8% in July 2026, according to Shanghai Metals Market analysis, as China — the largest single buyer — cut its purchases by 27.2% month on month, from 38,921 tonnes to 28,337 tonnes. China's share of total South African ferrochrome exports slipped from 31.6% to 29.0% as a result.

Japan fills the gap

While China pulled back, Japan's imports of South African ferrochrome rose 31.8% month on month, from 17,988 tonnes to 23,716 tonnes, overtaking both Italy and South Korea to become the second-largest destination for South African material. Japan's share of total exports jumped from 14.6% to 24.3% in a single month, reflecting its stainless steel industry's longstanding preference for South African high-carbon ferrochrome on quality grounds.

A looming glut

The pullback in Chinese demand coincided closely with Merafe Resources' half-year results, released on 11 August 2026, which flagged the risk of a ferrochrome glut heading into the second half of the year, driven by rising Chinese domestic ferrochrome output and soft global stainless steel demand. A glut driven by Chinese producers would put further pressure on prices just as South African smelters were trying to restart output following their Eskom tariff relief.

Why the US matters too

The United States sources roughly 41% of its ferrochromium imports from South Africa and holds ferrochromium in its National Defense Stockpile, underlining that South African supply remains strategically important to Western manufacturers even as Chinese buying patterns shift month to month. That dependence gives South African producers some insulation from a single market's swings, even as it means Chinese demand signals continue to move prices disproportionately.

What it means for South Africa

The July export data captures a chrome sector in transition: raw ore exports climbing to record levels even as ferrochrome exports gyrate with Chinese demand, reinforcing government's argument for measures to keep more value-added ferrochrome production onshore rather than shipping unprocessed ore.

Sources

• Shanghai Metals Market: [SMM Analysis] South Africa's Ferrochrome Exports Slide in July as China Pulls Back and Japan Steps In, 15 Aug 2026

Photo: Refined ferrochrome alloy, South Africa's key ferroalloy export to Japan and China. Borvan53, Wikimedia Commons, Public domain.