Richards Bay Coal Terminal Volumes Surge as Rail Bottlenecks Clear

Southern Africa's mining sector enters the second half of 2026 with a unique combination of tailwinds — elevated commodity prices, a recovering logistics infrastructure, and a global decarbonisation agenda that structurally favours the region's mineral endowment. Industry analysts who tracked the sector through the 2015–2020 commodities trough and the pandemic shock point to this moment as a potential inflection point. "The last time we had this alignment of geopolitical, demand-side and operational factors, it lasted nearly a decade." For the major producers, the immediate priority is translating higher spot prices into free cash flow. Mining executives have spent the past three years reinforcing balance sheets following the pandemic-era demand shock, and most are now in a position to increase distributions to shareholders while selectively deploying capital into brownfield expansions. The infrastructure picture remains the critical variable. Transnet's road-to-recovery plan has shown credible improvement in rail volumes, though logistics remain the single biggest constraint on export-oriented producers.